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The
New York Times - Analysis
A political arabesque in Iraq
By THOMAS L
FRIEDMAN
Monday, December 20, 2004
I have long believed that any American general or
senior diplomat who wants to work in Iraq should have to pass a test. It
would be a very simple test. It would consist of only one question: ‘‘Do
you think the shortest distance between two points is a straight line?’’
If you answered ‘‘Yes’’, you would not be allowed to work in Iraq. You
could go to Korea, Japan or Germany—but not Iraq. Only those who
understand that in the Middle East the shortest distance between two
points is never a straight line should be allowed to carry out US policy
there.
What I worry about most right now—after a week in the Persian Gulf—is
that we have entered a really complex, arabesque phase in Iraq. It
requires enormous understanding of the complexities of Iraqi and Arab
politics and the ability to produce outcomes not by the traditional,
straightforward US approach, but by the more subtle, bazaar-oriented
politics in that part of the world.
For instance, with the elections in Iraq only six weeks away, and Iran
actively using its influence and money to push its candidates, one thing
is perfectly clear: The Bush neocons desperately need an Iraqi neo-Baath.
By that I mean they need to find a political framework that will advance
the interests of the pro-Baath Sunni Arab nationalists in Iraq, but do
it with a more progressive, pluralistic outlook than the old Baath Party
of Saddam Hussein.
This is what we should be most focused on right now in Iraq—not the
bogeyman of Iranian influence. There is no way to prevent Iranian
influence in Iraq. Iran is next door, and it has myriad economic and
cultural links with Iraqi Shiites. Moreover, while the Iraqi Shiites are
certain to emerge with the most seats in the new Iraqi parliament, and
while some are pro-Iranian, the majority of Iraqi Shiites have no
intention of being ruled from Tehran. The Iraqi Shiites are Arabs, not
Persians, and they are aware of their Arabness. Any Iraqi leader who is
depicted or presents himself as the cat’s-paw of Tehran will face a
backlash.
The best way to reduce Iran’s influence, and to prevent civil war, is to
ensure as much Sunni participation in the election as possible, so that
when the new Iraqi Constitution is written, the more secular Iraqi Kurds
and Sunnis will balance the more religious-oriented Shiites. If there is
not enough Sunni participation, the elections, rather than defusing
civil strife, will increase it, because all the spoils will go to the
Shiites and Kurds, and the Sunnis will feel even more excluded.
For all these reasons, the Bush team should be working with Jordan,
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Arab states and even Syria to use all
their contacts with Iraqi Sunnis to embolden them to take part in the
elections—and to make sure they have bags of money to get out the vote,
particularly among the Sunni tribes. It is imperative the Sunnis be
brought in, even if some have to be bought.
Unfortunately, America’s Arab friends ‘‘are doing nothing’’ right now, a
senior Iraqi minister told me. The Americans need to be more demanding
of their Arab friends, he said. While many Arab leaders are appalled at
the idea of Shiites ruling an Arab state in the otherwise
Sunni-dominated Arab world, they also know that a civil war in Iraq
would lead to terrible instability at a time when all these Arab regimes
understand they have to start reforming.
Yes, the US invasion of Iraq made America some new
enemies, but it also has triggered a huge debate about reform in the
Arab world, said Ammar Abdulhamid, who helps run DarEmar, a pro-reform
NGO in Syria. ‘‘For some people it forced the reform issue, because they
said, ‘Let’s change ourselves before the Americans change us’,’’ noted
Abdulhamid. Some Arab liberals want to use the US presence to pressure
their governments. Some regimes are feeling very vulnerable and believe
the only way to stave off the Americans is to be seen as working on
reforms. But one way or another, ‘‘the Iraqi issue is forcing the issue
of reform on everyone,’’ Abdulhamid said.
A US approach that uses both sticks and carrots with Syria, Iran and
America’s Arab allies could still shape a decent election in Iraq, but
we have to get in gear right now. Does this administration have anyone
who knows how to play this game? Attention: Iraq is having an election.
Elections are rare in this part of the world, so when they happen,
everyone in the neighbourhood tries to vote. We need to make sure our
friends do as well.
The New York Times
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