Is Syria Next?
Secretary of Defense Rumsfeld’s recent allegation that Syria is smuggling
war materiale into Iraq raised the ominous prospect that Washington’s
attention will turn toward Damascus, whenever it is finished with Baghdad.
Rumsfeld’s charge – vehemently denied by Syria – now tops the long list of
unresolved issues in Syria’s relations with the United States: its
open-ended military intervention in Lebanon; its continued support of
Hizbollah there; its alleged involvement in the 1982 suicide attack against
the Marines barrack in Beirut resulting in the death of 241 US soldiers; its
continued support of various "outlawed" Palestinian groups; and Syria's
allegedly growing stockpiles of chemical and biological weapons. Indeed,
Syria has long been included on the State Department’s list of nations that
support terrorism.
For these reasons, Syria risks becoming a potential target for American
military adventurism. Even before the onset of the current hostilities, the
possibility was raised by certain members of the Bush Administration (like
Richard Perle), and conservative media commentators, all of whom would
gladly add Syria to the Axis of Evil.
Recognizing this possibility, the Syrian regime has made clear its
opposition to the American war in Iraq, which has been branded by President
Assad and other senior officials “a war of aggression”. Top-level thinking
about the risks that Syria runs were recently made clear in an interview
that the President gave to a Lebanese newspaper.
President Assad compared the situations in Lebanon and Iraq, insisting that
Iraq could achieve what Lebanon had already accomplished two decades
before. Namely, the forced withdrawal by American and British troops in the
face of steadfast, bloody Iraqi resistance. "The US and Britain will not be
able to control Iraq," President Assad asserted.
Declaring that “Arab popular resistance” to the American invasion has spread
through the region, referring to the increasing numbers of Arab, including
Syrian, "volunteers" that have gone to Iraq to fight alongside the soldiers
of Saddam, the President Assad accused the US of wanting "to rearrange the
region as it sees fit," to facilitate control of the region's oil wealth and
accommodate Israeli interests. In response, he called for the enactment of
the Arab Mutual Defense Pact.
Recently, the 90-year-old Grand Mufti of Syria, Sheik Ahmad Kiftaro, called
on Muslims worldwide to carry out "martyr-operations" against American
interests, a call that could not have been made without advance government
approval. It seems that the Syrian regime is painting itself into a dark
and dreary corner, a development that could set the grounds for a potential
showdown with the US in the not-so-distant future.
This said, however, there is also an unpublicised aspect of Syrian-American
relations to consider. Since September 11th, security
cooperation seems to have intensified, with the Syrian intelligence
apparatus providing much valuable information on the activities of Muhammad
Atta and others suspected of involvement in those attacks and other al-Qaeda
activities. There have even been indications of some Syrian
intelligence-sharing with the Americans regarding Iraqi military readiness
in the weeks preceding the attacks.
This should not be surprising, for the rulers of Syria over the last thirty
years have proven quite skilful at hedging their bets. It is even possible
that the regime’s loud anti-American stance might be meant to hide some
secret arrangement they have with the Americans, especially regarding the
Kurds and the Iraqi opposition members living in Syria.
Nonetheless, if the Americans win in Iraq – which they simply must do in
order to maintain their global credibility as a superpower – their relations
with their new Syrian neighbours will not be easy. Resolving all outstanding
issues is not something that will move quickly. Additionally, the Syrian
view of the Arab-Israeli dispute cannot be glossed over, since Syrian
acceptance is necessary for any peaceful settlement.
If the Americans attempt to isolate Syria, they will not have an easy time
of it. Damascus maintains good political and economic relations with
Russia, China and key EU members, especially France with its continuing
paternalistic attitude towards its former colony, and its young president.
On the other hand, with Americans controlling Iraq, Syria will find itself
surrounded by three unfriendly (if not downright hostile) and allied
neighbours: the Americans in the East, and the Turks and Israelis in the
north and south, both of which occupy Syrian territories.
Nonetheless, outstanding issues between Syria and the US will be better
resolved using smart diplomacy rather than smart bombs. Considering the
evidence on display in Iraq, Syrian leaders must be wondering whether the
Bush administration is capable of thinking in these terms? At the same
time, will Syria's new rulers prove capable of striking the kind of
Machiavellian bargain for which the late Syrian President, Hafiz Al-Assad,
was famous? Well, since the country's new rulers include many members of the
late President's team, one would think that such a possibility exists. But
are the Americans willing to see it?
April, 2003
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